, when analyzing data, there are always some data anomalies that can’t be found for the right reasons, and perhaps they can be looked at from a different angle. Why the data has large fluctuations, our brains still cannot find a good reason, these is what exactly is not abnormal, there are some common or abnormal, these abnormalities are not as we usually say, or should go to other categories, may wish to call them "to explain the abnormal".
recently read the book "thinking fast and slow", the author Kahneman’s view seems to give us some answers. Kahneman is a master of psychology and decision making. He tells us how to avoid misunderstandings in brain thinking and to make more rational cognition and decision making. Here are two points related to the above "unexplained anomaly" mentioned in the book:
regression mean effect: things will experience good or bad random fluctuations, but will eventually return to the average level.
uses causal relationships to explain random events: people are always trying to find reasons for some changes.
, DiMatteo and Benitez,
for regression to the mean (Mean reversion), the Kahneman effect for some sports and related examples, this really is a common phenomenon in competitive sports: Golf why can not play second days before the day of good results, why players second season no copies the first season…… This reminds me of Chelsea’s recent coaching event.
between DiMatteo and Benitez has some interesting common points: 1) are the Champions League winner, 2) ability have not been fully recognized. If DiMatteo does not have enough time to justify his coaching skills, then Benitez is clearly his choice, creating doubts about his abilities.
DiMatteo in the last season after the assistant coach Chelsea took over, and the caretaker coach all the way through, and ultimately win the Champions League, the team successfully brought back the first big ears cup can be enough to make the centralizer at the end of the season, but because of the lack of teaching experience has not so picky boss have enough confidence to it, so when the fans and the club also immersed halo of glory in the Champions League and the team’s performance, but not the continuation of "should be" brilliant, DiMatteo class is doomed. In such fierce competition in the Premier League, Chelsea cannot get rid of the regression effect, if the last season, Chelsea in the interaction of many favorable factors, based on some luck success crowned the Champions League this season, so these factors are no longer set in on them, and they also seem to luck "run out", before the return of the average level of achievement is.